A brief introduction: Contribution Analysis and Bayesian Confidence Updating

This paper provides an introduction to contribution analysis and outlines how it establishes whether or not an intervention or investment contributed to change. It also introduces Bayesian Confidence Updating and explores how this might be combined with contribution analysis to provide a robust assessment of CDC’s impact on mobilisation without the use of a counterfactual.

This paper was produced for our CDC Longitudinal Study. You can read our inception report here.